Decision analysis
Mastering Decision Analysis
Challenge your understanding of decision-making processes with our comprehensive quiz on Decision Analysis. This quiz features 75 carefully crafted questions that delve into the philosophy, methodologies, and frameworks essential for effective decision-making.
Test your knowledge and gain insights into:
- The fundamentals of decision analysis
- Problem-solving techniques
- Tools for visualizing decisions
- The importance of structured dialogue in organizations
The Philosophy of Decision Making first insight is that uncertainty is a consequence of our incomplete knowledge of the world.
True
False
By using decision analysis, the decisionmaker is aware of the adequacy or inadequacy of the decision basis.
True
False
Discovering the Real Problem is one of the steps of dealing with complex problems
True
False
The Team Approach is one of the steps of dealing with complex problems
True
False
Decision Quality is one of the steps of dealing with complex organizations.
True
False
A methodology is one of the steps of Decision making.
True
False
A Decision Framework is one of the steps of Decision making.
True
False
The Philosophy is one of the steps of dealing with complex problems.
True
False
The structured Dialog is one of the steps of dealing with complex organizations
True
False
Finding the insights is one of the steps of dealing with complex organizations.
True
False
The distribution tree is the information on how each uncertainty may turn out.
True
False
The probability tree represents all the different combinations of events that can occur and their probabilities
True
False
No loops, and single decision maker are the rules of constructing distribution tree.
True
False
Arrange the decision nodes, and the uncertainty nodes are the rules of constructing the probability tree.
True
False
Graphic conventions are not important in forming both influence diagrams and decision trees.
True
False
Which one is a Function level of Decision Making?
A Philosophy
A Decision Framework
A Decision-Making Process.
All the above.
describes how people should logically make decisions.
Decision Making.
Decision Analysis.
All the above.
None of the mention.
Decision Analysis provides concepts and language to help the decision-maker.
True
False
reduce the problem to manageable sized pieces and allows intuition to function most effectively.
Deterministic
Probabilistic
Deterministic and probabilistic
None of the mention.
… is a step of Dealing with Complex Problems
Discovering the Real Problem.
Keeping the Analysis Manageable.
Finding the Insights.
All the above
. … is to provide the decision-maker the insight needed to choose between alternatives.
Discovering the Real Problem
Keeping the Analysis Manageable
Finding the Insights.
All the above
Which one is a step of Dealing with Complex Organizations
Structured Dialog.
Probabilistic.
Finding the Insights.
All the above
The most effective means of dealing with cross-organizational problems and opportunities appears to be the cross-organizational team.
The Team Approach.
Structured Dialog.
Decision Quality
None of the mention.
Probabilities represent our state of knowledge.
True
False
Which approach reduces the complexity and scope of the problem to a level at which intuition can function effectively?
Clairvoyance test
Divide and conquer.
Distribution tree.
None of the mention
We use it to represent the data in the nodes of the influence diagram.
Clairvoyance test.
Divide and conquer
Distribution tree
None of the mention.
Is a hypothetical person who can accurately answer any question, even about the future
Clairvoyance test.
Divide and conquer.
Distribution tree.
None of the mention
Arrange the uncertainty nodes is not a step of the procedure that will transform an influence diagram into a decision tree?
True
False
Which one is for constructing influence diagrams?
Single Decision-Maker
No Loops.
No Forgetting Previous Decisions
All the above.
Where are Graphic conventions important in?
Influence diagrams.
Decision trees.
Both a &b.
Make the deterministic value node a tree endpoint node.
Decision node represented graphically by…
Square or rectangle.
Leaves.
Ovals.
Circle.
Chance node represented graphically by…
Square or rectangle.
leaves.
Ovals
Circle
What is the benefit from graphic convention?
Arrange the uncertainty nodes.
) Helps to avoid confusion about what is a decision variable and what is an uncertainty variable.
To represent the data in the nodes of the influence diagram.
None of the mention
What are dependent probabilities important in?
Arrange the uncertainty nodes.
Dealing with a problem we address informally in our daily lives
Helps to avoid confusion about what is a decision variable and what is an uncertainty variable.
None of the mention
To reverse the order of nodes we use…
Bayes’ Rule.
Graphic convention
Both a & b.
None of the mention
Can we apply Bayes’ Rule to trees?
True
False
What are the ways to understand why the reordering is not allowed?
Using an operational way
Using more fundamental way of understanding the problem is to realize that this would create a loop in the influence diagram.
Using The way of understanding the problem is the second way repressed in decision tree language.
All the above.
What is the interpretation?
Is that we learn whether we are on the high branch, the middle branch, or the low branch before we make the decision
Is a means of describing how much a particular outcome is worth to you
Is a convenient and powerful technique for dealing with alternatives
All the above
What is a utility function?
) Is that we learn whether we are on the high branch, the middle branch, or the low branch before we make the decision
Is a means of describing how much a particular outcome is worth to you
Is a convenient and powerful technique for dealing with alternatives
All the above.
How can utility function be encoded?
Direct.
Indirect.
Both a & b.
None of the mention
By using a utility function, we cannot calculate Certain equivalent values for a decision-maker?
True
False
To deal with complex real-world problems we use …
Cyclical approach.
Divide and conquer approach.
Both a & b.
None of mention.
What is the benefit of the decision hierarchy?
To represent the data in the nodes of the influence diagram
The Decision Hierarchy helps people sort through the different types of decisions
Arrange the uncertainty nodes.
None of the mention
The types of decision the hierarchy distinguish are …
One
Two
Three
Four
Types of the Decision Hierarchy distinguishes are …
Policy decisions
Strategy decisions.
Tactics decisions.
All the above
What are the strategy tables dealing with?
Alternatives
Variables
Both a & b.
None of the mention.
What are the strategy tables consisting of?
Rows
Columns
Cells
None of the mention
Arrange the decision nodes is not a step of the procedure that will transform an influence diagram into a decision tree?
True
False
Represents all the different combinations of events that can occur and their probabilities
Clairvoyance test.
Divide and conquer.
Distribution tree.
The probability of tree representing
You prefer the alternative with the largest expected utility” is a proof of the existence of a utility function?
True
False
Achieving clarity when dealing with dependent probabilities is often both difficult and important.
True
False
Dependent probabilities are important in dealing with a problem we address informally in our daily lives
True
False
Probabilities can depend on a decision node
True
False
A utility function is a means of describing how much a particular outcome is worth to you.
True
False
We use the utility curve to find the utility values of the outcomes.
True
False
We use the utility curve to find the certain equivalent value corresponding to the expected utility.
True
False
There are several quick ways of estimating risk tolerance
True
False
Encoding a utility function is not particularly complicated for a single continuous attribute such as money.
True
False
The process of encoding the utility points is straightforward.
True
False
The process of giving the certain equivalents is very unfamiliar and difficult.
True
False
The first try at a utility function may produce a set of points that fit on a smooth curve
True
False
The choice of a discount rate is not important in almost any business decision.
True
False
Making a proper choice involves both the finance department and the decision analysis team.
True
False
Expected values are often an inadequate criterion for decision-making.
True
False
A utility function can be encoded directly.
True
False
The decision analysis cycle makes it possible to tackle complex, real-world problems by breaking the decision analysis into four stages.
True
False
The four stages of the decision analysis cycle are basis development, deterministic structuring, probabilistic evaluation, and basis appraisal.
True
False
The cyclical process makes most decision problems untraceable.
True
False
. In the case of Diagnostics, the two-week limit allowed only one real pass through the cycle
True
False
The structured approach ensured that at the end of the week, the best possible results were available for decision making.
True
False
Decision-making in the modern corporation almost always involves cross-organizational teams both to analyze the problem and to make the decision.
True
False
The Dialog Decision Process meets the challenges of implementing the logic of decision analysis in the team environment
True
False
A structured series of dialogs between the project team and the decision team provides the direction, reflection, insight, and communication needed to arrive at a decision.
True
False
For long-term, effective utilization of decision analysis in corporate environments, the insights of the analysis must be well-communicated.
True
False
The facilitators must be appropriately positioned and supported.
True
False
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